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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 19

New York Giants 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 3-J.Brown 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.06 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 19, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model