Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 86

New England Patriots 10 – New York Giants 7

(7:11) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYG 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-D.Harris to NYG 46 for 11 yards (53-E.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.03 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 86, worth -5.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model