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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-M.Sanchez pass short middle to 81-J.Matthews to 50 for 6 yards (20-R.Jones; 52-K.Sheppard) [50-O.Vernon].

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.47 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -0.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model