Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

(1:51) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to PHI 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 29 for 10 yards (92-J.Denney).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.58 EP
75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model