4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to MIA 2, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-38-E.Biggers.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.04 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model