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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 6-C.Sturgis 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model