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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to PHI 26, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles ran ob at PHI 33 for 7 yards (92-J.Denney).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model