Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 4-M.Darr punts 64 yards to PHI 5, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 35 for 30 yards (31-M.Thomas). PENALTY on PHI-16-S.Ajirotutu, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model