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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 38

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 8-D.Jones punts 25 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.06 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model