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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(:27) 4-M.Darr punts 56 yards to PHI 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 19 for 7 yards (30-Z.Bowman). MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.51 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -2.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 26, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model