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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 8-D.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 49-Z.Vigil, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, ball out of bounds at PHI 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model