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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 6-C.Sturgis 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.29 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model