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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to DEN 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 31-O.Bolden to DEN 25 for 11 yards (51-F.Zombo).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model