Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(5:11) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to KC 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 36 for 11 yards (55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model