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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 30

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.09 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model