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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 29 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.58 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model