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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 20

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(12:20) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep left intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Berry (21-S.Smith) at KC -6. 29-E.Berry to KC 19 for 25 yards (73-M.Garcia).

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP