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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 38

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 88-D.Thomas to KC 30 for 8 yards (21-S.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.00 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model