4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 22 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to DEN 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.52 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP