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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 5-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model