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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 49

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model