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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:04) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.91 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model