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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.84 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP