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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-D.Alexander.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model