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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 31

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.80 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP