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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.76 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -1.31 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model