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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(4:05) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.56 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model