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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(14:14) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to BAL 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-J.Ross MUFFS catch, touched at BAL 33, RECOVERED by JAX-41-N.Marshall at BAL 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model