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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-Z.Smith), Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model