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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(14:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model