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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.94 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model