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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 3

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(3:32) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 3, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP