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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(12:35) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-B.Walters to JAX 13 for 2 yards (43-R.Mostert).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.91 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP