Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 88

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-J.Ross to BAL 46 for 14 yards (46-C.Tinker). PENALTY on BAL-28-B.Trawick, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 32.

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.34 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 88, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model