Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 69

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

(1:56) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to GB 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde pushed ob at GB 21 for 6 yards (38-G.Winn).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.80 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model