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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 8-T.Masthay punts 39 yards to DET 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-G.Tate pushed ob at DET 26 for 6 yards (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.04 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model