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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 12

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 8-T.Masthay punts 33 yards to DET 25, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model