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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.73 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP