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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 33

Detroit Lions 9 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.69 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model