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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 91

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to DET 46, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-G.Tate to DET 45 for -1 yards (22-A.Ripkowski).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 91, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 48, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model