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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 8-T.Masthay punts 36 yards to DET 7, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model