Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 9

(12:54) 8-T.Masthay punts 25 yards to GB 47, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.57 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model