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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 31

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(:17) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model