Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 88

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 0

(:53) 8-T.Masthay punts 41 yards to DET 47, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.22 EP
41% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 88, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model