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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 59

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 9-M.Stafford right guard to DET 42 for 1 yard (90-B.Raji; 96-M.Neal).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.94 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model