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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 8-T.Masthay punts 44 yards to DET 3, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-24-Q.Rollins.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model