Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 0

(15:00) 8-T.Masthay punts 54 yards to DET 23, Center-61-B.Goode. 15-G.Tate to DET 46 for 23 yards (8-T.Masthay).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.67 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model