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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 35

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model