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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP