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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to TB 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.36 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP